Like the eye of a hurricane, businesses raked by the leading edge of the COVID-19 pandemic are now taking a cautious look outside. Though the winds have subsided, and it’s tempting to think that the worst is over, the eye simply gives us a chance to prepare for what’s left to come.

If you have withstood the worst of the impacts of the pandemic so far, you likely have accepted that the storm was coming, and had battened down your hatches (or at least applied for PPP funding to keep vestiges of your business afloat). Now, though, as we can start to imagine a future in which a return to a “new normal” is evident, it’s critical to have your plan in place when the rebound hits.

For those who haven’t been willing to consider the details needed in your post-pandemic recovery plan – or simply weren’t willing to “go there” – now is the time to get ready. Though the public will be released from their quarantine, and generally speaking, ready to dine, the world into which they will venture will indeed be changed. Will their appetite for dining with you also be transformed?

In my view, planning for the rebound – the re-grand-opening into this brave new world – will require a three-step planning process:

1. An accurate assessment of NOW – Analysis and cost cutting based on where you are today, and how you’ll conduct business until social distancing is no longer needed;
2. Planning for NEAR - Executing on pivots or changes to your offerings to help your cash flow to improve your survivability, and;
3. Plan NEXT - Stop random acts of marketing and follow the 12-step approach that follows “The Growth Gears,” a strategic marketing book authored by Art Saxby and Pete Hayes, to plan for your recovery.

Let’s explore further.

1. ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF NOW

Where have your customers gone? Are they still in need of your unique brand of hospitality? Are you maintaining your competitive edge? Are you able to keep your employees active and engaged in the business? Many businesses are grappling with these and other questions, as they fight for survival in an apocalyptic present, and uncertain future. Here are four tips to consider when assessing the current state of affairs in your enterprise:

1. Review costs. Most people have already done this – things like cancelling recurring services that are simply irrelevant, asking for payment terms on necessary services, and in general, having a series of difficult conversations about labor and supplies. Job No. 1 is to understand your cash flow – and factors influencing it -- in a time like this.
2. Review competition. What is your competition doing now? How have they pivoted? Did they reduce hours of operation?  Were they forced to close? Is there something you could do with your local competitors to encourage customers to order takeout and delivery?  For example, an entity called “The Great American Takeout” has formed, and has encouraged customers via social media posts to takeout food to support restaurants every Tuesday since March 24.
3. Reconnect with your employees. Did you furlough or lay anybody off? With the crew that is left, what has the pandemic done to morale? How are you? Now is the time for frequent communication with your current and past employees. To prepare for reopening, you should prepare a plan to re-hire and train employees.
4. Reassign tasks. To keep employees on the payroll (assuming you have sales because you are offering curb-side pick-up or delivery), reassign team members to answer the phone, shuttle deliveries or serve as a curb-side ambassador. In the short term, this could also mean repurposing the business for strictly philanthropic purposes. One restaurant invited the American Red Cross to park its Bloodmobile in their parking lot for a blood drive to help medical professionals.

If you’ve withstood the worst of the pandemic so far, you may find that the tweaks you’ve made temporarily should be considered for permanence. Now, more than ever, understanding the customer’s needs and wants – and how you are positioned to be a guiding force in their upturned lives – can be a make or break proposition. Here are some ways to be a part of this change:

1. Rethink offerings. If you’re a restaurant, you might offer groceries or sell toilet paper. Most restauranteurs reduced their menu offerings to optimize the to-go experience. For retailers, this can involve sticking with conveniences like online ordering and curbside pick-up. Creativity is key. Here are some creative examples:

• Red Roof Inns: The lodging company offered up hotel rooms as remote office and alternative resting spaces during the day for truckers for only $29.
• Fogo de Chao: The unique Brazilian restaurant shifted its focus to offer curb side packages of ready-to-grill cuts of meat.
• Wow Bao: The restaurant has begun “selling the materials necessary to make a simplified version of their menu of bowls, buns, and potstickers to other restaurants and ghost kitchen facilities,” according to the website Restaurant-Hospitality.com.
• Subway: The sandwich chain is testing a Subway Grocery concept in California. The beta program allows customers to order items such as baked bread, deli meats, sliced cheese, vegetables and soups.
• Panera: Like Subway, Panera Bread has launched a grocery offering at scale to allow customers to order essential grocery items such as breads, milk and produce, and to have the items available for delivery or drive-up pickup.

2. Reconsider sacred cows. As businesses rethink their offerings, they can run smack into certain “sacred cows” that seem to be integral to their identity. For example, a full-service eatery may balk at delivery options, since that fish dish might be ruined in the 30 or 45 minutes it takes to deliver it. This is no time for those kind of pretensions. Find a way to make a meal pack, or focus on offerings that can be delivered successfully. Several restaurants have created pop-up drive throughs, with no more than a tent and a landlord’s blessing. And the likes of Home Depot have shifted to curbside pick-ups even as it prided itself on counseling customers in the store.

3. Reschedule Initiatives. Retailers and restaurants that had planned remodeling projects could move those up, but only if the resources exist to do so. Only the best capitalized businesses will be able to embark on a remodeling project now, but if you can move up the date, it’s worth doing while your dining room or bricks-and-mortar location is closed. Of course, such initiatives can still be hindered by government directives that limit non-essential work and will vary by municipality.
   
   
4. Reconnect. Communication matters more than ever. We may be keeping our distance physically, but we’ve never been more social. We have regular Zoom happy hours, and we can still call upon clients virtually on a regular basis. B2B companies will have closer relationships since they sell directly to their clients, but B2C companies shouldn’t go quiet either. They need to reach out every few days, so long as they are mindful in tone and content.

On an April 8 webinar sponsored by Valassis and featuring data from Technomic, they suggested:

If you can maintain communication with your customers through advertising, social channels and email, do it.  You must be mindful of your tone and message, but the research of the past 93 years is clear – if you can maintain or increase your advertising during a downturn, especially when your competitors don’t, you will be rewarded with higher sales and market share during the recovery.

Planning for the recovery sooner, rather than later, is critical.  Those who wait for the recovery to begin will be late to the party and will likely lose market share to more aggressive competitors.

With what you’ve gleaned from studying your competitors and company in Step No. 1, above, it’s time to learn more about your customers as they exist today, to get an idea of what and who they may be in the future. The shifts in public policy, social interactions, virtual work spaces and personal hygiene will likely be tectonic in scope. As a result, you need to understand how the shifts will affect your business and which ones you may be able to exploit.

Ways to learn about your customers now, so you can plan for the Next.

• Google Analytics – Look for shifts in devices used, demographics, source of traffic etc.
• Email surveys – Query your customers about about their lifestyle, media preferences, food choices, favorite foods etc. as they were prior to the pandemic, and as they are now. Do a gap analysis to find opportunity.
• Read – Information abounds online regarding perceived or guessed new behaviors by many sources. Pete Hayes, CMO and Principal for Chief Outsiders outlined the basic steps to follow in his blog “COVID-19 Crisis – 12-step Pre-Recovery Checklist for CEO’s. Also, McKinsey & Company posted an opinion on how to prepare for the next stage of the crisis. Their opinion is deeply rooted in management consulting expertise and is more about preparation for the next stage of the crisis vs. recovery.

Regardless of your current posture on the COVID-19 pandemic, it is a certainty that the danger will eventually come to an end. Now is the time to be sharpening your pencils and honing your strategies so you can be ready for the next steps.

For a vision of how your business might look after the rebound, stay tuned for our next blog.